The U.S. Senate race

If anyone needs a reminder how important Illinois’ open U.S. Senate seat is, simply go back a year and replay that deliciously infamous line from Rod Blagojevich: “I’ve got this thing, and it’s f---ing golden.”

Most everyone now knows Blagojevich was referring to the Senate seat once occupied by President Obama, a post now sought by a dozen Democratic, Republican and Green Party candidates in one of the most closely watched U.S. Senate campaigns in Illinois history.

Truth be told, the sprawling field of candidates in the February 2 primary aiming to replace Democratic Sen. Roland Burris, Blagojevich’s scandal-tarred appointee, probably attaches the same value to the seat as Blagojevich once did.

Especially the six Republican candidates.

For any Republican to win this seat would deal an enormously embarrassing blow to Obama and other Chicagoans in the White House and could threaten the president’s midterm congressional agenda. Love or hate Burris, his vote has been important to Obama’s efforts to find consensus on a health-care plan and to pass the $787 billion economic stimulus program.

“Republicans will put a lot of money into this. To pick up Obama’s Senate seat would be a wonderfully juicy thing for them to do,” said David Yepsen, director of Southern Illinois University’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.

Illinois has been as blue a state as there is. But Blagojevich and Burris’ mishandling of Obama’s old seat, coupled with Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s decision to stay out of the race despite being courted by Obama, have left this race a toss-up. That recognition has given the state’s moribund Republican Party its first true measure of hope in a marquee race against Democrats since the 1990s.

Republican U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk, a centrist five-term congressman from Chicago’s North Shore, is considered a favorite in the Republican field. The Democratic side appears to be essentially a three-way race, with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias considered a front-runner.

An early December survey by the Rasmussen Reports polling firm had Giannoulias leading Kirk, 42 percent to 39 percent, in a general election matchup.

“The Democratic field is not certainly what national Democrats had hoped it would be. In other words, Lisa Madigan isn’t in it. It’s sort of a quirky primary, but let’s see who comes out of it. I suspect Giannoulias has done the work he needs to do,” says Jennifer Duffy, an analyst of U.S. Senate and governors’ races with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

“On the Republican side, if Kirk is the nominee, this race is a toss-up. Kirk knows how to win tough races. He knows how to raise money. He’s from the right part of the state and knows how to take away votes from Democrats,” Duffy says.

In an interview with Illinois Issues, Kirk says part of his strong standing in the polls has to do with how turned off voters have been with Burris’ tumultuous appointment. Polls have shown Burris with the lowest approval rating of any Illinois official because of how he gained the seat over the objections of Obama and other party leaders. He misled and the House impeachment panel about his lobbying for the appointment and was subsequently admonished by a Senate ethics panel.

“We prefer to call this the ‘Roland Burris’ seat,” Kirk says. “It reminds folks of how we got here.”

An abortion-rights advocate who has scored low marks with the National Rifle Association, Kirk says his moderate views position him well for a general election, which he says he believes will be a matchup between himself and Giannoulias.

“I am a fiscal conservative, social moderate, national security hawk. And I think that’s also where most of the people of Illinois are,” he says. “Obviously, when we’re in a primary, we have party divisions. But at the moment, things look pretty commanding, and our job is to take nothing for granted, roll to the primary election and then look to what will be the most vigorous race for Senate in the United States in the general election.”

Kirk was one of seven House Republicans to vote last June for Obama’s cap-and-trade legislation, which limits greenhouse emissions and has drawn GOP scorn as a “national energy tax.” Now, Kirk says he is against the plan, which narrowly passed the House 219-212.

“I voted for it because it was in the narrow interest of my congressional district. But when you study the wider Illinois economy, the legislation is inappropriate,” says Kirk, who has said he would vote against it as a U.S. senator.

Duffy, with the Cook Political Report, regards conservative real estate developer Patrick Hughes as Kirk’s most viable opponent in the GOP primary. Other Republicans in the race include Donald Lowery, Andy Martin, Kathleen Thomas and John Arrington.

“There’s a giant disparity between Congressman Kirk and I,” says Hughes, who has the backing of conservative icon Phyllis Schlafly and former Chicago Bears coach Mike Ditka, among others. “His policies, both fiscal and social, are to the left of even a moderate Republican.

“The base will be behind me,” predicts Hughes, who credits Kirk’s cap-and-trade vote as his reason for entering the race. “They’re apoplectic on cap and trade and realize he’s off the reservation on our platform in significant ways.”

On the Democratic side, Giannoulias faces Chicago Urban League chief and former Blagojevich spokeswoman Cheryle Robinson Jackson and former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman. Other Democrats on the ballot include lawyer Jacob Meister and Robert Marshall.

Elected treasurer in 2006 with Obama’s support, Giannoulias clashed with Blagojevich by being among the first Democratsto oppose the ex-governor’s gross receipts tax. Last year, Giannoulias made headlines with his threat to pull the state’s $8 billion investment portfolio from Wells Fargo bank if it shut down the Hartmarx clothing plant in Des Plaines. Wells Fargo, the suit maker’s main creditor, later agreed to sell the plant, preserving 600 jobs.

“We saved a company from being liquidated. I’m the only candidate who’s done that. That’s something voters will pay attention to,” says Giannoulias, who has lined up significant labor support and backing from key Democratic Party leaders such as Illinois Senate President John Cullerton.

“It’s one of the most important, most high-profile races in the country. It’s the president’s Senate seat,” Giannoulias told Illinois Issues. “As Democrats, we have to make sure we have the best candidate who can keep this seat so we can focus on health-care reform, so we can focus on rescuing a planet in peril, so we can unfreeze the credit markets.”

As for vulnerabilities, Giannoulias’ family bank, Broadway Bank, is financially troubled and once did business with convicted Blagojevich fundraiser Tony Rezko, as did some other Chicago banks prior to Rezko’s indictment. Giannoulias own a 3.6 percent stake in the bank but emphasizes those are nonvoting shares.

Hoffman, who spoke out against Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley’s controversial deal to lease public parking meters when he was the city’s inspector general, says Rezko’s ties to the Giannoulias family bank raise questions about the treasurer’s abilities in a general election.

“Both as a substantive matter and political matter, being able to say I have no connections whatsoever to Blagojevich, Rezko or any other problem players is a major distinguishing feature between the other candidates and me because it speaks to my independence from the political establishment, and it speaks to my electability in the general election,” says Hoffman, a member of Gov. Pat Quinn’s Illinois Reform Commission.

Jackson, the Chicago Urban League chief, is positioned to draw support both from female and African-American primary voters and says she is more attuned to the economic plight now facing most Illinoisans.

“What sets me apart is that I’m strongest on the issues that people are most troubled by and are struggling with today, those bread and butter issues like jobs, struggling to hold on to my home, struggling to keep the doors open to my small business, frustrated with schools that don’t educate,” she says.

Among all those in the Senate race, Jackson is most directly tied to Blagojevich but downplays the association, noting that as Chicago Urban League chief she spoke out against Blagojevich’s failed gross-receipts tax and is behind an ongoing civil rights lawsuit filed originally against Blagojevich’s administration for inadequately funding public schools.

“The campaigns are saying it’s an issue, but for people it’s not an issue,” Jackson says.

Dave McKinney