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Clean sweep? Illinois Democrats pin their fall hopes on a big broom
Analysis by Dave McKinney How often does Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan chuck his suit, tie and precise lawyerly prose, don a loud, canary-yellow polo shirt, and get plain lippy? Not often, which is why a $3 ticket to the Illinois State Fair during one sultry day last August was such a bargain. Somehow, this guy, who has been an imposing political force for decades but never so much a physical presence, carried himself as if he were Muhammad Ali, prophesying Republican doom. Hoisting a broom, Madigan’s trash talk put hundreds of union members on their feet with fists in the air, certain they will see a political version of the rope-a-dope spring from the Democratic playbook this fall. “I want you to go find the biggest broom in your house and get ready for a clean sweep in November!” Madigan said, his characteristic, Southwest Side cadence saturated with Ali confidence and swagger. If Madigan is right, state government could turn decidedly pro-union soon, meaning a possible rollback of constraints placed on teachers by Chicago school reform and enhanced benefits for workers in and out of government. At the same time, many corporate tax breaks ushered in under Republicans could be closed in the name of boosting the state budget. It would be one thing to suggest that Republican George Ryan’s scandal-plagued tenure has put the governor’s office within reach for Democrats. It has. But Madigan and the Democrats are talking about doing something their party hasn’t pulled off since before World War II: occupying every major statewide office, holding the General Assembly and controlling the Illinois Supreme Court, all at the same time. How could this happen? How is it that a party that hasn’t won the Executive Mansion in 30 years, that once was infiltrated by followers of political extremist Lyndon LaRouche, and that just eight years ago lost nearly everything in Springfield is now so certain it’s capable of putting Republicans down for the count? Sure, there appears to be a national trend toward Democrats halfway into Republican President George W. Bush’s first term. But in Illinois, there is only one reason that matters, and that is the incumbent governor. While not charged with wrongdoing himself, George Ryan hasn’t been able to escape the shadow of a truck licenses-for-bribes scandal that led to the deaths of six children and other motorists while he served as secretary of state. Money he so generously spread around to his political followers seems tainted now that federal prosecutors have charged his campaign fund with being a criminal enterprise. Further, he’s been dogged by policy contradictions during his tenure as governor. In particular, taxes were raised during his watch after he had campaigned against allowing that to happen. The result: George Ryan’s approval rating among Illinois voters is at a historic low for governors. And, in a politically tragic twist, the Republican who wants to succeed Gov. Ryan shares his last name. This is no to say that Jim Ryan, no relation to George Ryan, has lost the governor’s race already. He hasn’t. He’s resilient. The attorney general survived cancer and the death of his daughter. And, as a teenage Golden Gloves champion, he has the instincts of a fighter. “Any boxer will tell you that what happens in the early rounds of a fight doesn’t matter much,” Jim Ryan says. “That’s when there’s all the calculation, and people are kind of dancing and feeling each other out. I’ll tell you when it matters: in the later rounds. That’s when people take off the gloves. That’s when you come out of the corners, plant your feet and fight back.” For Jim Ryan, the early rounds have meant using precious time and capital reminding voters which Ryan he is, that he can restore the trust he says George Ryan has squandered. Yet, try as he might to distance himself from the incumbent governor, Jim Ryan is lagging far behind Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rod Blagojevich in polling. A St. Louis Post-Dispatch survey taken in late August put the spread at nearly 15 points, 48.6 percent to 34 percent in favor of Blagojevich. Later polls show a wider gap. There are other troubles. The governor’s deepening legal problems have caused political donations for Jim Ryan to pale compared to past GOP gubernatorial candidates, and Republicans as a group seem less energized and less prone to bring out the vote than at any point in a generation. And the attorney general isn’t the only Republican facing problems. The GOP’s candidates for U.S. Senate (Rep. Jim Durkin of Westchester), secretary of state (Kris O’Rourke Cohn of Rockford) and comptroller (Thomas Jefferson Ramsdell of Wilmette) are neither well-known nor well-funded. And DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett of Wheaton faces the speaker’s daughter, Lisa Madigan, in a race for attorney general, which Mike Madigan has made clear is his No. 1 priority. Beyond Jim Ryan, the only Republican who has run statewide before is Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka of Riverside, who is as popular and effervescent as they come but could fall victim to an upset by state Rep. Tom Dart of Chicago in a heavy Democratic year because she is so far down the ballot. Illustrative of how screwy things are this year for Republicans, she has more money in the bank than anyone else on the GOP ticket, including Jim Ryan. But Jim Ryan faces additional challenges. Beyond struggling to get the money to present his case in television ads, he simply isn’t as glib as the immensely well-funded Blagojevich, often seeming distant and cold. It’s difficult to picture the two-term attorney general invoking the name of Elvis Presley on the campaign stump, as the relaxed-looking Blagojevich did on the eve of the 25th anniversary of the King’s death. “It’s been 30 years since we elected a governor,” Blagojevich said. “Thirty years ago, Elvis was alive and doing Vegas. It’s been 30 years of Heartbreak Hotel for the Democrats, but when we win in November, the Republicans will be All Shook Up.” To counter such bluster, one of Jim Ryan’s newest and most salient themes is that Democrats want too much and, if left unchecked, could turn Illinois into a very unfriendly place for business, dominated politically by Big Labor. “Obviously, if we lost the legislature, the judiciary and the executive branch of state government, our party would be in trouble,” says the attorney general, who has already pronounced a Democrat-run Senate a near certainty after almost 10 years of GOP rule. “This goes beyond partisan politics. This is about some balance in government, some checks and balances.” And he’s right. In Illinois politics, rarely has one party had it all. Republicans came close in 1994, when the GOP won every statewide office and control of the legislature. But if Democrats duplicate that feat, as the attorney general notes, they would have a distinct advantage the Republicans didn’t have in the mid-1990s: control of the Supreme Court. Democrats now govern the state’s high court by a 5-2 margin. That court is responsible for blocking several prized GOP initiatives from 1995 through 1997, ranging from caps on lawsuit awards to parental notice requirements for teens seeking abortions. Democrats controlled the governor’s office, the legislature and the Supreme Court from 1975 to 1977, during Democrat Gov. Dan Walker’s final two years in office, and amid national fallout from Watergate. But that wasn’t a complete shutout because Comptroller George Lindberg and Attorney General William Scott, both Republicans, were in the middle of their terms. Ten years earlier, Democrats seized on public sympathy surrounding President John F. Kennedy’s assassination and won the governor’s office, every other contested statewide office and the legislature. They already controlled the court. But, again, two Republican holdovers elected in 1962 to four-year terms remained in government: William Scott, who was then treasurer, and Ray Page, who was the state school superintendent. The clean sweep Madigan hopes for last occurred during the late 1950s under Republican Gov. William Stratton. The GOP ruled the roost by holding all of the major statewide offices, the legislature and the Supreme Court. For Democrats, that kind of grip on power last happened in 1937 during the depths of the Great Depression, when President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s popularity was on the rise. Democratic Gov. Henry Horner coasted to a second term, helping his party win both legislative chambers as well as lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, state school superintendent and auditor of public accounts, the precursor to today’s comptroller. That party also controlled the Supreme Court. The only member of the Democratic ticket who was around then was Secretary of State Jesse White, who was 3 in 1937. Madigan was born five years later, and the party’s choice for governor this year, Blagojevich, wasn’t born for another 20 years. Hoping to replicate that Depression-era showing, traditional Democratic allies — from unions to trial lawyers to consumer groups to human services advocates — are busy plotting their legislative agendas for next spring, banking on the sweep Madigan has forecast. Much of what they seek has passed the Democrat-controlled House in recent years, only to languish in the GOP-run Senate. A sampling of what may await under all-Democrat rule includes:
Of course, if Democrats live up to their high expectations and orchestrate a sweep, they’ll have to prove they can get along with one another before any of these initiatives can become law. And this might not be easy for that contentious party. Historically, Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley and Speaker Madigan have had an on-again, off-again relationship, despite sharing political roots as delegates to the 1970 Illinois constitutional convention. Both have been strong advocates for Chicago, but they have had very public differences. In a rare public display of their rivalry, Madigan backed Chicago Ald. Edward Burke over Daley for Cook County state’s attorney in 1980. Daley and Madigan also have clashed over past gubernator-ial and Cook County board president candidates. But of late, Daley and Madigan seem to be on the same page politically. Daley endorsed the speaker’s daughter, Lisa Madigan, for attorney general in January over his former chief of staff, John Schmidt. Of more immediate concern are signs of a split between Madigan and Blagojevich. Before the broom-hoisting at the State Fair, the Democratic nominee for governor criticized Madigan’s “arrogance” for securing a $300,000 state grant for a college pal and horse show afficionado at a time when vital state human services were on the chopping block. In a clear warning shot, the speaker said he could have revealed past “indiscretions” by the party’s candidate for governor, but chose not to in the name of political unity. What indiscretions? Neither side would say. “There will be differences, even among Democrats, should I be governor,” Blagojevich says. “You’re not always going to agree. I don’t always agree with my wife, and she certainly doesn’t always agree with me. So there are going to be those problems. But we keep our eye on the ball. “It’s the big picture that really matters: how we’re going to improve schools, grow our economy, [provide access to] prescription drugs for our seniors, health care, restore ethics and honesty. On those issues there is no disagreement. Our party is speaking as one.” If
the party can possibly speak as one in the event of a November sweep,
will the Democrat doing most of the talking be Blagojevich, Daley
or Madigan? Absent any Republican surprises, that story line won’t
begin to unfold until January. But in such a scenario, Madigan’s
spot in the party power structure already seems a notch or two above
everyone else’s. Anything Daley or Blagojevich would want would
have to come through the Madigan-run House. If Republicans can’t
escape Gov. Ryan’s troubles, Madigan has few qualms about checks
and balances in state government. Those will exist, he says, “if
there is a strong, responsive leader in the legislature.” Attentive
listeners noticed his singular use of the word “leader.”
Indeed, after November 5, Room 300 of the State Capitol may be home
to the heavyweight champion of state government.
Dave McKinney is Statehouse bureau chief for the Chicago Sun-Times. Illinois Issues, October 2002 For information about how to subcribe to Illinois Issues go to: Go to Illinois Issues blog at http://illinoisissuesblog.blogspot.com/
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