The heat is on

Control of the Illinois Senate is at stake,
and the spotlight is on a handful of races

by John Pattersont

It’s late July and the summer sun is baking Chicagoland.

Rather than duck indoors and crank up the A/C, Kathleen Parker is walking door to door, talking to voters. Months remain before anyone goes to the polls, but this is a routine Parker, a Republican state senator from Northbrook, plans to keep to right up until the November 5 general election.

She’s by no means alone. Her Demo-cratic opponent Susan Garrett, a state representative from Lake Forest, is spending her summer walking the same political beat through the lakeshore communities of northern Cook County and into Lake County.

Working so hard so early seems like overkill. But there’s far more at stake here than simply representing this section of suburban Chicago in the Illinois Senate.

This race, perhaps more than any other, has been dubbed the race to watch for predicting control of the Illinois Senate come 2003. Over the past 10 years, Republicans, under the leadership of Wood Dale’s James “Pate” Philip, have held the legislative reins in that chamber. They currently have a 32-27 majority.

But Democrats, and their leader Emil Jones Jr. of Chicago, head into this election armed with a map their party drew of the state’s 177 legislative districts. Consequently, they appear to have a good shot at gaining control in the 59-member Senate.

“It certainly appears the map made three Republican seats disappear in the suburbs,” says political scientist Kent Redfield, who studies legislative races at the University of Illinois’ Springfield campus. “I think in suburban Cook County the map drawing gives a huge strategic advantage [to Democrats].”

Indeed, tweaking the legislative boundaries in the decennial remap threw up for grabs districts that had been electing Republicans. In some cases, incumbent Republicans were mapped into the same districts.

Thus, with Democrats expected to maintain control of the Illinois House and make a strong run in the governor’s race, winning the Senate would give them political power they’ve not experienced in decades — and the ability to push whatever policy agenda they choose. That is exactly why Republicans, and their allies, consider control of the Senate so vital.

Republican-friendly business groups, for instance, fear a Democratic sweep could yield fewer tax breaks for economic development and greater regulation of industry. It would also likely give labor unions newfound power in Springfield. Shifts are expected on social issues, too. Gun owners’ groups, for example, predict more gun control laws if Democrats win. Traditionally, gun control proposals are well-received in the Democratic-controlled House, but go nowhere in the Republican-led Senate. A case in point happened in 1999, when, after the Illinois Supreme Court struck down a sweeping anti-crime law because of technical errors, Gov. George Ryan and many lawmakers rushed to re-enact key provisions. But in the Senate, Philip rallied his members and repeatedly rejected those efforts because they promoted increased penalties for those caught illegally carrying guns. In fact, the proposal would have made illegal gun transportation and possession a felony. Philip never did budge on that provision.

If Democrats sweep the Senate, that Republican checkpoint would be gone on nearly all public policy issues.

In many ways, Parker represents Senate Republicans’ last hope. Even if she wins, there’s a strong chance Democrats will control the chamber.

If she loses, the GOP efforts are almost assuredly doomed.

“The reality is it’s going to be tough for the Senate Republicans to get 30 seats, and 30 [is] the ultimate we can get,” Parker says.

She adds that keeping a Republican majority in the Senate is crucial to providing political balance in a year of great Democratic opportunity.

But from her opponent’s perspective, it’s time for a change. “I hope to make the Senate much more responsive to the needs of Illinois citizens; that’s exactly my reason for running,” Garrett says. “[In] the Senate, more than any other place, whether Pate Philip likes the legislation is what carries the day.”

Adding to the heat in this race between two industrious campaigners is its proximity to Chicago’s ultra-expensive media market.

“That will be a very expensive and very well-watched race up here,” says state Sen. Terry Link, a Vernon Hills Democrat and chairman of the Lake County Democratic Party. “I think if Parker is defeated, that will more than ensure a Democratic Senate. One thing I will say about Kathy Parker, she’s a diligent, hardworking candidate. But so is Rep. Garrett.”

In 1998, Garrett won the Illinois House seat left vacant when Republican Corinne Wood was tapped to run for lieutenant governor alongside George Ryan. Two years ago, Garrett was targeted by Republicans but handily dispatched GOP challenger Cesilie Price with 64 percent of the vote.

“I love to campaign. I’m one of those people who loves to go door to door,” Garrett says. “When I was a kid, my family didn’t have a lot of money. So I went door to door selling personalized Christmas cards. It’s second nature for me now.”

Parker is considered a tenacious campaigner, too. In her first campaign, she survived a three-way primary and then beat Democratic incumbent Grace Mary Stern in one of 1994’s highest-profile political contests.

“I was out there in the snow one night [during the primary] in my mukluks knocking on doors,” Parker says. “In the general [election], I walked from June 3 to November 9. We walked all the precincts and that has been my style.”

In fact, Parker’s ability to campaign is the only reason Republican strategists believe they have a chance. If it were any other candidate, the district would be considered lost to Democrats, who have made surprising gains here.

Previously, the 29th District was primarily a suburban Cook County district, taking in the lakeshore communities of Evanston and Wilmette, and stretching west to Northbrook. But the new district is nearly split between Cook and Lake counties. Gone are many of the North Shore communities as the Cook County portion of the district has moved west to take in parts of Mount Prospect, Prospect Heights, and Des Plaines. In Lake County, the district runs along Lake Michigan, encompassing Highland Park and Lake Forest, an area that has recently sent Democrats to Springfield with greater frequency.

Over the past 10 years, this section of the state is among the fastest growing. City dwellers with Democraticallegiances have taken up residence in the suburbs, and newcomers to Illinois have moved in, perhaps unaware of the Republican power structure that has ruled the region.

Republican Gov. Jim Edgar carried this area by 20,000 votes in his 1994 election. But two years ago, Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush lost to Democrat Al Gore by 16,000 votes.

It’s not unheard of for candidates to overcome the political leanings of their districts. Sen. Link first won in 1996 in a district that was 55 percent Republican. But it takes a huge effort and nonstop campaigning to pull off such an upset.

Parker and Garrett are both full-time lawmakers with business experience. Parker was a member of a local school board and the Regional Transportation Authority Board. Garrett has served on several community boards and is past president of the Friends of Ragdale, an artist’s retreat, and the local League of Women Voters.

Both support abortion rights and have worked to reform financing of the Illinois State Toll Highway Authority. Both support laws that would require parental notification before a minor could have an abortion, and Garrett would expand the law further to include other family members and the clergy. Garrett wants the General Assembly to take over the tollway system and have the final say on any toll increases.

Parker’s proposals don’t go that far; rather, she calls for a freeze on toll rates until the tollway system has a management audit completed.

The two differ on executions. Parker supports the death penalty, while Garrett is an opponent.

Of course, much more is at stake than the ideological differences of these candidates. Their race is among the few Senate contests likely to determine political power in the Senate. All 59 Senate seats are on the ballot this November. Most are considered all but won by one party or the other. Only seven of the contests are considered to be in play.

It is in these so-called “target” races that political leaders and special interests focus their efforts and dollars. Political observers expect spending records to fall with so much at stake. Two years ago, state Sen. Wendell Jones, a Palatine Republican, and retired high school teacher Sue Walton, a Rolling Meadows Democrat, spent between them more than $1.4 million. Jones won what to date is the most expensive legislative race in state history.

Already, Garrett and Parker are nearing the half-million-dollar mark. Recently filed campaign finance reports show Parker raised more than $242,000 in the first half of 2002. Garrett’s total was just over $201,000. Both amounts are expected to increase dramatically as the campaign season heats up in the coming weeks.

“This could be a very expensive race.

I don’t think there’s any question about it,” Redfield says.

Garrett and Parker may be the marquee match, but other Senate races are key. Perhaps the most fascinating political race in the Senate is taking place in the 15th District in Chicago’s south suburbs.

State Sen. William “Bill” Shaw, a Dolton Democrat, has been a member of the Senate since 1993 and previously served in the Illinois House. He’s also the mayor of Dolton and a political force in this area.

His challenger is James Meeks, the dynamic senior pastor at Salem Baptist Church of Chicago and a protégé of the Rev. Jesse Jackson. Meeks is running on the Honesty & Integrity Party ticket. If he wins, he plans to vote with the Democrats in electing Senate leadership.

Meanwhile, Republicans hope Meeks and Shaw split enough Democratic votes that their candidate, Phillip Arnold Jr. of Thornton, could emerge the surprise winner.

Meanwhile, Sen. Steven Rauschenberger, an Elgin Republican and chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, faces a new district — the 22nd — that isn’t nearly as Republican-friendly. It forsakes western Kane County in favor of the Cook County suburbs of Hoffman Estates and Schaumburg. Democrat Al Gore won this area in the 2000 presidential election.

Rauschenberger has another apparent handicap going into this re-election bid. This spring, he presided over efforts to cut millions of dollars in state spending to balance the budget, thereby angering many special interest groups.

So Rauschenberger, who has served in the Senate since 1992, may have his hands full facing Democrat Robert Steffen of Sleepy Hollow. Steffen is a former prosecutor who narrowly lost the 2000 Kane County state’s attorney’s race in a county considered to be a Republican stronghold.

In southeastern Illinois, the 54th District race between state Sen. William O’Daniel, a Mount Vernon Democrat, and state Rep. John Jones, a Mount Vernon Republican, is downstate’s version of the Parker-Garrett contest.

The 54th runs from Effingham south to Mount Vernon and then east to the Indiana border. O’Daniel is the popular incumbent who has represented much of this area in the Senate since 1985. But it has been years since O’Daniel has faced a serious election challenge.

Jones has represented half of O’Daniel’s Senate district since 1995.

He survived hard-fought elections in 1994, 1996 and 1998, when Democrats made him a target. “It takes a lot of hard work. That’s nothing new to me,” Jones says. “A lot of leg work from a lot of people.”

This is an area where the need for jobs often blurs party lines. O’Daniel and Jones routinely set aside party differences to help their part of Illinois. Now they’re going head-to-head in one of downstate’s hottest races.

Deeper into southern Illinois, state Sen. David Luechtefeld, an Okawville Republican, is opposed by Tamaroa Democrat Charles Wayne Goforth, a former state representative. The 58th District runs south of the Metro East area to below Carbondale.

Luechtefeld has been a target in every race he’s run. In 1996, he beat Democrat Barb Brown, a political science instructor at Southern Illinois University, by only 127 votes. Two years later, he again faced Brown, but that time won by more than 6,400 votes.

Goforth is a former three-term House member and has picked up early labor endorsements. The union vote could be key, as evidenced by Luechtefeld’s decision to vote against his Senate Republican colleagues this spring when they supported closing a state prison and eliminating hundreds of associated jobs in this area to help balance the state budget.

In east central Illinois, state Rep. Richard “Rick” Winkel Jr., a Champaign Republican, faces former Champaign Mayor Dan McCollum, a Democrat, for the 52nd District seat being vacated by longtime Republican Sen. Stanley Weaver of Urbana. Weaver has held the seat since 1971.

But the Democrats who drew this district added a challenge. It combines the economic woes of Danville with the high-tech college atmosphere of Champaign-Urbana, effectively eliminating one downstate Senate district to coincide with the area’s loss of population. Much of the old Republican-leaning territory was removed in favor of the labor-friendly Danville area. The district begins at Champaign-Urbana and stretches east to Danville and on to the Indiana border.

McCollum, mayor from 1987 to 1999, was enticed to come out of retirement and run because the new demographics make it conceivable a Democrat can win.

Winkel was effectively mapped out of the House district he was familiar with and survived a hard-fought Republican primary against state Sen. Judith Myers of Danville. He easily won in Champaign County, but received only 819 votes compared to Myers’ 6,246 votes in Vermilion County. If Winkel and McCollum split the Champaign-Urbana area, Vermilion County could be the key battleground.

Another hot match exists northwest of Peoria, where voters in the 37th District will have their pick of two new faces. State Sen. Carl Hawkinson, a Galesburg Republican, has represented this area since 1987, but now he’s running for lieutenant governor. Retired Illinois Department of Transportation engineer Dale Risinger of Peoria is the Republicans’ standard-bearer in this race. He has the backing of several Peoria-area Republican powers, including state Rep. David Leitch. Risinger is making his first run at public office.

The Democratic candidate, Paul Mangieri of Galesburg, is the Knox County state’s attorney, the first Demo-crat ever elected to that county’s top prosecutor post. Mangieri toyed earlier this year with running for lieutenant governor and traveled the state drumming up support before aborting the bid.

State Sen. Frank Watson, a Greenville Republican, also may be facing a surprisingly tough race in the 51st District. While Watson already represents much of this area, the newly drawn district is huge, stretching from just east of the Metro East area north to Decatur. The mix of farming communities, prison towns and Decatur’s urban core could prove unpredictable.

Watson has served in the General Assembly since 1979. His challenger is former state Rep. John Dunn, a Decatur Democrat who served in the Illinois House from 1975 to 1995.

Most political observers say it will take an upset for Republicans to hold 30 seats and keep power in the Senate. Here’s why. A total of 21 Republicans are all but ensured victory — most have no opponent. The GOP also has an advantage in the open seats near Peoria and Champaign-Urbana. That would give Republicans 23 seats.

Getting to 30 then becomes tricky.

There are 27 Democrats considered safe — again, most have no challenger — and Democrats hold the advantage in two more Chicago-area open seats. That gives Democrats 29 “safe” seats. They would only need one more victory in any of the targeted races to control the Senate. And several analysts believe the Democrats could end up with as many as 34 seats.

In contrast, Republicans must win the 23 seats where they have an edge, make sure the targeted incumbents — Parker, Rauschenberger, Watson and Luechtefeld — all win, get Jones to knock off O’Daniel and produce the GOP upset in the three-way race in the south suburbs.

Even then, they’d only be at 29 seats and in need of a major upset elsewhere.

It’s an even darker picture for Republicans in the Illinois House.

Few anticipate any erosion of power from House Speaker Michael Madigan, a Chicago Democrat. His party currently has a 62-56 majority and has controlled the chamber since the 1996 elections. The primary goal for House Republican Leader Lee Daniels of Elmhurst is preventing the Democrats from getting a veto-proof 71-member majority.

“They drew a map to try to elect as many Democrats as possible. I can’t think of anything good to say about the map,” says Gregg Durham, spokesman for Daniels, who stepped down as state GOP chairman this summer.

Again, only a handful of the 118 House seats are considered in play.

In northwest Cook County, state Rep. Michael McAuliffe, a Chicago Republican, faces state Rep. Robert Bugielski, a Chicago Democrat, for the 20th District seat.

Also in the northwestern Chicago suburbs, state Rep. Rosemary Mulligan, a Des Plaines Republican, is expected to face a tough challenge from Park Ridge Democrat Barbara Jones for the 65th District seat.

In the Champaign-Urbana area, state Rep. Thomas “Tom” Berns, an Urbana Republican, squares off against Urbana Democrat Naomi Jakobsson. Berns barely won two years ago, and Jakobsson barely lost a House race in 1996.

Madigan is all but ensured control in the House. And Democrats believe Rod Blagojevich, their party’s nominee for governor, gives them their best shot at the governor’s mansion in almost 30 years. A majority of the Illinois Supreme Court justices also are Democrats. So claiming the Illinois Senate could give Democrats unprecedented power in the legislative process.

Not everyone is ready to concede control, though.

“This certainly is not a done deal, given the past effectiveness of the two campaign organizations and the leaders’ ability to raise money,” says Redfield, the political scientist at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “Clearly the Senate Republicans have had a much better track record during the 1990s.”

Some Democrats fear overconfidence could be their demise, and observers caution political surprises may be lurking that could throw any race into turmoil.

“Some candidate will say something wild, or some candidate will have some skeleton in the closet,” Redfield says. “There’s always going to be something weird happen in an election.”

And so Parker and Garrett hit the streets, knocking on doors and talking to voters, knowing all eyes are on their every move.

Illinois Issues, September 2002

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